Every Roll-Up Has an Expiration Date
How long does the window stay open for high multiples in a vertical? 3-5 years is the typical window
Hi, Niklas here 🙂📝
This is my journey as an independent sponsor & equity investor.
I publish tactical insights for deal-by-deal private equity.
Subscribe for my short-form content in your inbox (~3x/wk).
I publish tactical insights for deal-by-deal private equity.
Subscribe for my short-form content in your inbox (~3x/wk).
AI + Engineer + 4 Weeks = 4 Fewer Vendors
Just talked to an executive at a middle-market tech company: "Which software vendors can we replace with AI+
Your Pro-Forma Doesn't Need 40 Tabs
Pro-forma spreadsheets are usually way too complex. Nobody likes to review other people's spreadsheets, let alone with
More Upside, Same Downside: What 815 IS Deals Show
815 independent sponsor (“IS”) deals analyzed: IS deals have a similar risk profile to traditional PE deals, with greater upside.
Low Margins = Opportunity!
I often prefer low margins to high margins. Not because of the underlying business fundamentals. I understand high margins typically
Post-LOI: Milestones That Keep a Deal Moving
Post-LOI milestones signal momentum and confidence. The timeline that you've communicated to the seller is also your
Anti-Embarrassment
Anti-embarrassment clause: Included in Purchase Documents to protect a seller from the "embarrassment" of selling a company
Customer research = Gold
Customer research is the best way to both diligence your deal and excite your investors. Examples: • 1-on-1 interviews.
Why Rush to Sell a Good Business?
Andrew McDonald might be the most quotable guest we've had on. Guilty criminals who go free, bluebirds of
"Families are lost."
"Families are lost." After exiting their source of wealth (most typically a 9-digit business), the FO/UHNWI
Family Offices always want to "collaborate" on deal flow
"We would love to collaborate on deals with you," says every Family Office in the world. Of course
Four Owners, Four Jobs, No Split Focus
HKW's CEO, Ted H. Kramer, splits the firm's work into four jobs instead of two. HKW
The dreaded "certainty to close"
If you're in a bankered deal with multiple bidders, and the banker/seller asks you about "certainty
Country club & Racecar
An independent sponsor was able to move a seller from "NO" to "Yes!" on an 8-
The Hybrid Independent Sponsor
Lou Grabowsky doesn't fit the usual independent sponsor mold. Conventional wisdom: you start with nothing, fund your own
Deal flow by industry
Screenshot of the 2025 breakdown of deal flow by industry at Minds Capital. Everyone knows valuations, revenue quality, capex intensity,
"Everyone wants a proprietary deal, until they get one."
"Everyone wants a proprietary deal, until they get one." - Fatigued independent sponsor who's dealing with a
Family Offices vs. High-Net-Worth: The Hold Period Divide
Logan Walters prefers indefinite hold periods. No forced exit clock, just a pragmatic eye kept open in case something spectacular
Losing a deal to a strategic
Losing a deal under LOI when a strategic buyer swoops in with $7m more = brutal. Time kills all deals, exhibit
VCs becoming PE (growth equity)
VC/Tech boomed through the 2010s and COVID, but there's been a sharp decline in the past 5
"Tropicalizing"
Christian Seale taught me a new word: tropicalizing. Taking a US concept and adapting it for Mexico. Officially adding it
$10m EBITDA platform w/ no equity
$10m EBITDA platform w/ no equity (real-life case study): The independent sponsor had 3 LOIs, with $4m, $4m, and
Add-on vs. Bolt-on vs. Tuck-in
Add-on vs. Bolt-on vs. Tuck-in The words are used interchangeably, but there are nuances. If I missed
Find the Bottleneck, Ignore the Rest
Jimmy Watson gave me a reading assignment I didn't know I needed. In our pre-call, he mentioned