Seasonality of M&A
Seasonality of lower-middle market M&A (USA): Deal activity reflects people's personal calendars. Almost nobody works during
Macro
30 posts
Bullish on US equities (Feb 2026)
As a newly minted countryman I am bullish about US equities as we launch our 2nd fund: • The US is
Family Offices + Independent Sponsors = Strong Match
James warns that when 1 LP represents 80-90% of the capital in a deal, the sponsor is no longer in
The Rise of Family Offices
The rise of Family Offices is an enabler of entrepreneurial private equity: (i) Compared to institutionals, FOs have flexible mandates
"Very bullish" on US equities
Why I am "very bullish" on US equities: • The new tax bill incentivizes capex spend by accelerating depreciation
Tariffs Impact Businesses Very Differently
Tariffs impact businesses very differently. In stark contrast to my nosediving public equity portfolio, here’s a somewhat positive real-life
Bain 2025 PE Annual Report
Bain & Company's 2025 PE annual report. My key takeaways: • Sluggish distributions as funds continue to see fewer
White House Coming After Carry
The White House stated today that a new tax bill will aim to eliminate the "carried interest loophole."
DOGE, an SBA(7)a killer?
SBA 7a loans weren’t meant to subsidize lower middle market private equity. They weren’t meant to serve as
"Is Search A Bubble?"
"Is search a bubble?" No. (a) Valuations for SMBs and lower-middle market PE transactions have stayed disciplined in
$539B Tax Gap
Recently, I talked to an IRS insider who shared insights about the $539 billion tax gap (2021 data). The tax
Big Tech vs. Innovation
Big Tech (Google, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon) actually compromise innovation. They don't want to be disrupted. ssrn-4713845Coopting Disruption
Dallas Fed Real Estate Conference Notes
Random notes from Real Estate Conference at the Dallas Fed on May 8: • Residential active listings down 35% from 2019.
Ranking Metro Areas
A few months ago, Skye Hersh and I ranked all the metropolitan areas with >1m people by recent population
Tax code = Country's Values
A country's tax code is a representation of its priorities. The US prioritizes entrepreneurs, real estate owners, and
Underwhelming macro data
Record-high asset prices should be accompanied by strong economic data and trends. However, the data continues to underwhelm: • April job
MVP 2024 = American Trifecta
The MVP of the global economy so far in 2024 is the American trifecta (consumer, worker, and investor). The American
$61 aid package to Ukraine
This weekend the US Congress approved a $61B aid package for Ukraine. It isn't hard to understand voices
China headwinds
China, recently the world’s economic engine, faces headwinds directly linked to trust-erosive political missteps: #1: In the absence of
US jobs in 2024
US job numbers continue to surprise, with last week’s report showing 303,000 new jobs in March. Incumbent politicians
Bad news = Good news
A podcast I listen to suggested that “both good news and bad news are positive for the market these days.
Bain 2024 PE Report
From Bain’s 2024 Private Equity Report webinar: • 2023: Fundraising, exits, dealmaking, and capital velocity were strongly affected by rapidly
5.30% savings rate
So 2024: one of my WhatsApp group chats is ablaze with discussions on which bank offers the best rates. I’
"Underemployment"
52% of recent four-year graduates are "underemployed" (vs. the normal rate is ~1/3). Underemployed is when "
