A few months ago, Skye Hersh and I ranked all the metropolitan areas with >1m people by recent population growth and projected migration trends. We highlighted 18 regions where we feel confident in the long-term prospects for residential new construction (hashtag#RNC) in specific and home services in general.
As an example, DFW is projected to grow from 6-7 million residents in 2020 to 9+ million in 2045 - an evident trend for anyone who's been through there in the last decade. While homebuilding is cyclical and will ebb and flow, the long-term prospects are extremely favorable for companies with a good brand, efficient processes, and a robust balance sheet.
In addition to migration trends, tens of millions of homeowners are "locked" into <3% mortgages for the next 20+ years. This is why home prices haven't slumped and why housing inventory will remain low (similar to what happens when there's rent control, which most view as a disastrous policy). It's a massive boon for RNC.
