The MVP of the global economy so far in 2024 is the American trifecta (consumer, worker, and investor).
The American Consumer continues to spend despite plentiful warning signs - buying services, vacations, and more (retail sales up 3% yoy). The savings rate in the US has dropped by ~2.4%-points since before the Pandemic and consumer debt is on the rise - buoying current economic conditions (at the behest of future stability).
The American Worker continues to be fully employed (3.8% unemployment rate, largely driven by massive fiscal stimulus) and productivity is accelerating (1.1%, up from 0.7% pre-pandemic). Productivity gains enable growth without inflation.
The American Investor continues to invest in everything from bonds to bitcoins, pushing multiple asset classes to all-time highs. America as a place to invest is as attractive as ever compared to China (alienating foreign investment) or Europe (anemic growth + war with Russia), paradoxically compounded by higher inflation rates (higher interest rates + more uncertainty).
