"You miss a 100% of the shots you don't take" is a quote by legend Wayne Gretzky, and as an entrepreneur & dealmaker I often think about it in inverse: You score (big!) on some % of the shots you take.
You have upside potential by being an entrepreneur and owning equity. Good things can happen. Any one deal may fail, but with sufficient reps and perseverance something big is increasingly likely to materialize.
This is what happened to Kevin Ramsier (listen to latest Minds Capital Podcast episode), who acquired ILS for ~$16m (approx. $10m equity + $6m debt) and sold it for ~$55m only 18 months later. Nobody could have predicted or underwritten ~5x MOIC in 18 months, but it happened to him because he was in the arena & took the shot. In this antidote to a black swan, there was a ginormous strategic player who felt threatened by ILS's new technology and paid a crazy valuation to get rid of it!
